Global Salmon Market Analysis with a Focus on Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Executive Summary: This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the global salmon market, examining recent price trends and the primary factors that influence them. It further delves into the specific dynamics of the salmon market in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, exploring its price landscape, supply chain characteristics, economic determinants, and cultural context. The analysis reveals a globally growing demand for salmon, albeit with price volatility influenced by a complex interplay of supply, demand, and economic factors. In Addis Ababa, the market for salmon, primarily met through imports, presents a unique situation with prices appearing comparable to those in major consuming nations, despite the lower average income levels, indicating a niche market catering to a specific segment of the population. Challenges related to import costs and limited local production are evident, alongside opportunities for market growth within the hospitality sector and among more affluent consumers.

Global Salmon Price Trends and Influencing Factors:

Recent Trends in Global Salmon Prices: Recent data indicates fluctuations in global salmon prices. The Norway Salmon Price, a key indicator, stood at 9.623 USD per kilogram in January 2025. This represents a significant increase of 19.84% from the previous month’s 8.030 USD per kilogram but a decrease of 5.73% compared to the 10.21 USD per kilogram recorded a year prior . This short-term volatility, juxtaposed with a year-over-year decline, suggests a complex market environment potentially influenced by seasonal factors or shifts in supply and demand dynamics. Financial instruments such as over-the-counter (OTC) and contract for difference (CFD) prices for salmon, as tracked by Trading Economics, further highlight the historical volatility of this commodity, with prices ranging from a low of 18.27 NOK/KG to a high of 111.66 NOK/KG between 2000 and 2025 .  

Analysis from Procurement Tactics suggests a 16.10% drop in salmon prices attributed to market oversupply. This oversupply is driven by competition between wild Alaskan salmon, farmed Atlantic salmon, and production from Europe and Russia. The increasing annual production in Alaska also contributes to growing inventories, exerting downward pressure on prices . Several factors contribute to these price fluctuations, including imbalances in supply and demand, the growth of salmon aquaculture, fishing conditions, environmental conditions, and overall market conditions. Global inflation has also played a role, leading consumers to be more conservative in their spending on seafood, thereby affecting salmon prices. Additionally, favorable sea conditions in major producing countries can lead to more abundant harvests, further increasing global supply and potentially decreasing prices . Conversely, salmon fishing follows seasonal patterns, and variations in harvest volumes due to weather, fish population health, and regulations can directly impact prices . Changes in ocean conditions, such as water temperature shifts and habitat disruptions, can also affect salmon availability and prices, while environmental events like algal blooms can negatively impact salmon populations . Economic factors, including currency exchange rates, inflation, economic growth, and market speculation, also significantly influence salmon pricing . Despite recent drops, experts anticipate a rebound in salmon prices, projecting an average of approximately $8.96 per kilogram in 2024 and $10.97 per kilogram in 2025 .  

The global salmon fish market demonstrates significant growth potential. Valued at USD 14.87 billion in 2021, it is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5% from 2022 to 2030, reaching USD 30.97 billion by the end of the forecast period . This growth is supported by increasing product launches in various forms, including frozen, canned, and ready-to-eat options, as well as the rising popularity of ready-to-eat salads and hot smoked salmon . Europe held the largest market revenue share in 2021 (48.7%), being a major trader of fishery and aquaculture products. However, the Asia Pacific region is expected to experience the most rapid growth, with a significant CAGR of 13.0% from 2022 to 2030, driven by increasing seafood consumption and health consciousness . In contrast, commercial salmon fishers on the West Coast experienced a lean year in 2024 due to unusually low dock prices. In Bristol Bay, a key benchmark, dock prices for sockeye salmon fell from $1.75 per pound in 2021 to $0.82 per pound in 2023, with a potential recovery to $1.25-$1.50 per pound expected in 2024 . This decline in dock prices is attributed to increased wild salmon supply, decreased demand, and rising costs within the supply chain .  

Primary Factors Influencing Global Salmon Prices: Aquaculture production plays a dominant role in shaping global salmon prices. Farmed salmon is the most prevalent form in the market due to its consistent availability and relative affordability . Major producing countries like Norway, Canada, the UK, and Iceland are expected to continue dominating the market with their robust aquaculture industries . Ongoing technological advancements in aquaculture are further enhancing production efficiency and sustainability, which can influence supply and, consequently, prices . For instance, innovations in fish feed and recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS) are leading to higher yields and improved quality .  

Fishing regulations also exert a significant influence on salmon prices. Restrictions on supply, often implemented for conservation purposes, can lead to price increases . Seasonal fishing patterns and regulatory guidelines dictate the quantity of harvest, causing variations in market supply and price . Transportation costs are another critical factor. Logistical challenges, such as those experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, can disrupt trade and increase transportation expenses . Inefficiencies in the retail sector, including labor costs and product spoilage, also contribute to the final price consumers pay .  

Demand for salmon is a key driver of its price. The increasing global demand for healthy, protein-rich foods, coupled with a growing awareness of the health benefits of omega-3 fatty acids found in salmon, fuels market expansion . Rising disposable incomes and evolving dietary preferences, particularly in rapidly growing markets like Asia Pacific, further contribute to this increasing demand . However, economic downturns and inflationary pressures can lead consumers to opt for less expensive protein sources, potentially dampening demand for salmon . Environmental conditions introduce volatility into the salmon market. Shifts in ocean temperatures, currents, and habitats can impact the availability of both wild and farmed salmon . Environmental events like algal blooms and pollution can also harm salmon populations, affecting supply and price .  

Finally, various market conditions play a role in determining salmon prices. Currency exchange rates, inflation rates, overall economic growth, and market speculation all contribute to price fluctuations . The COVID-19 pandemic led to a notable shift in consumer behavior, with increased demand for frozen and processed seafood through retail channels . Higher interest rates can also make it more costly for buyers to hold salmon inventory, potentially leading to decreased demand and price adjustments .  

The Salmon Market in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: A Detailed Analysis:

Current Price Landscape: Information regarding the specific price of fresh salmon in Addis Ababa is limited within the provided data. However, Deliver Addis, an online delivery platform, lists “Salmon Fillet Skin on” from Fresh Corner at a price of 3,335.00 Ethiopian Birr (ETB) per kilogram . Using a current exchange rate of approximately 1 USD = 129.8 ETB , this translates to roughly $25.70 USD per kilogram. Deliver Addis also offers “Regular Smoked Salmon” and “Big Smoked Salmon,” although specific prices are not provided . The mention of a significant discount on “Big Smoked Salmon” (-4313 ETB) suggests a higher original price. While a TikTok video mentions a “Fish Combo” at Fresh Corner Kitchen for 1200 Birr , it is unclear whether this includes salmon. Online retailers like Ubuy.et offer imported smoked and wild-caught salmon fillets, with prices listed in ETB, indicating availability through this channel, likely at a premium to account for import costs .  

Supply Chain Dynamics: Ethiopia’s salmon market is heavily reliant on imports. Frozen Pacific salmon is imported primarily from the United Arab Emirates and Chile . Frozen Atlantic and Danube salmon are sourced from the United Arab Emirates, Chile, and Norway . Premium Seafood is identified as a major wholesale supplier of salmon in Ethiopia, importing frozen seafood from over 20 locations . The Norwegian Fisherman specializes in the weekly import of fresh Norwegian salmon to Addis Ababa, targeting the hospitality sector, including hotels, restaurants, and catering services . IndexBox data reveals that smoked salmon imports into Ethiopia are supplied mainly by the UAE, South Africa, and Norway . While Genesis Fish House is a restaurant in Addis Ababa serving fish , the focus is not specifically on salmon. Given that Ethiopia is a landlocked country with local fish production primarily from freshwater bodies and limited aquaculture , the salmon consumed in Addis Ababa is almost entirely imported.  

Economic Determinants: The current exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Ethiopian Birr significantly impacts the cost of imported salmon. As of March 2025, 1 USD is approximately equivalent to 129.8 ETB . Fluctuations in this rate can directly affect the price of imported goods, with a weaker Birr making imports more expensive. Ethiopia’s average import duty rate is around 17%, with rates for consumer goods potentially ranging from 20% to 35% . These tariffs add a substantial cost to imported salmon, contributing to its final price. Additionally, a Value Added Tax (VAT) of 15% is levied on the total cost, including the CIF value and customs duty . The average monthly salary in Ethiopia is relatively low, at around 7,052 ETB (approximately USD 55), with a median monthly income of about 6,529 ETB (approximately USD 51) . This suggests that the imported salmon, priced at a premium, may be accessible primarily to higher-income segments of the population and expatriates. Ethiopia is not a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and therefore does not have bound tariff rates, offering flexibility in setting import tariffs . However, goods imported from member countries of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) may benefit from preferential tariff rates .  

Global Price Comparison: When comparing the estimated price of fresh salmon fillet in Addis Ababa ($25.70 USD/kg) to global benchmarks, several observations can be made. The Norway Salmon Price (export price) in January 2025 was 9.623 USD/kg , significantly lower than the price in Addis Ababa. In the US retail market, the average price of fresh salmon was $11.48 per pound (approximately $25.31/kg) in the third quarter of 2024 . Similarly, the average national wholesale price of salmon in the US was $10.25 per pound (approximately $22.59/kg) in August . Norwegian salmon export prices reached approximately USD 10.04/kg in early 2024 . These comparisons indicate that the price of fresh salmon fillet in Addis Ababa is comparable to US retail prices and even slightly higher than the average US wholesale price, despite the significant difference in average income levels. This suggests that salmon is positioned as a premium product in the Addis Ababa market, likely catering to a specific, more affluent consumer base. The substantial difference between the price in Addis Ababa and the Norwegian export price highlights the impact of transportation costs, import duties, taxes, and the markups applied by suppliers and retailers.  

Table: Comparison of Salmon Prices (USD/kg)

 

Cultural and Dietary Context: The per capita consumption of fish in Ethiopia is notably low, at less than 1 kilogram per year . However, demand for fish products is gradually increasing due to population growth, rising incomes, and evolving dietary preferences . Fish is recognized as an important component of the national nutrition strategy, providing essential nutrients . Fish consumption is also influenced by the traditions of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, with fish being a common food during fasting periods . While traditional Ethiopian cuisine primarily features dishes with injera and various meat or vegetable stews, fish is not as widely consumed as other protein sources . Nevertheless, dishes like “Asa Wat,” a spicy Ethiopian fish stew, exist . The traditional Ethiopian diet is largely plant-based, with moderate consumption of animal-source foods . Given the low overall fish consumption and the likely premium pricing of imported salmon, its demand in Addis Ababa is likely driven by a smaller segment of the population, possibly including health-conscious consumers and those with exposure to international cuisines.  

Conclusion: The global salmon market is characterized by increasing demand and price volatility influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including aquaculture production, fishing regulations, transportation costs, consumer demand, environmental conditions, and macroeconomic factors. In Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, the salmon market is predominantly reliant on imports, resulting in prices for fresh salmon fillet that are comparable to those in major consuming nations like the United States, despite significantly lower average income levels. This suggests a niche market catering to a specific demographic. Economic factors such as currency exchange rates and import tariffs play a significant role in the final price of salmon in Addis Ababa. While overall fish consumption in Ethiopia is low, it is gradually increasing, and imported salmon likely finds demand among more affluent consumers and within the hospitality sector.

Recommendations and Outlook:

For Potential Importers/Distributors: Thorough market research is crucial to understand the specific demand for various types of salmon, including fresh versus frozen and different cuts. Analyzing the price sensitivity of target market segments, such as hotels, restaurants, and higher-income consumers, will be essential for developing effective pricing strategies. Exploring sourcing opportunities from countries with potentially lower tariffs or more favorable trade agreements could help optimize import costs. Investing in efficient logistics and cold chain solutions is vital to minimize transportation expenses and maintain the quality of imported salmon.

For Policymakers: Considering the impact of import tariffs on the affordability of nutritious food sources like salmon may be beneficial for promoting public health. Exploring the potential for developing local aquaculture of salmon or other high-value fish species could reduce the reliance on imports and potentially lower prices in the long term. Supporting initiatives to educate consumers about the nutritional benefits of fish and promote its consumption within the local diet could help expand the market.

Market Outlook: Global demand for salmon is expected to continue its upward trend, particularly in emerging markets. Price volatility is likely to persist in the short to medium term due to factors such as environmental changes and potential disruptions in the supply chain. The Ethiopian salmon market is projected to remain a niche market, with potential for growth primarily among affluent consumers and the hospitality sector. This growth will be contingent on factors such as affordability, consistent availability, and increasing consumer awareness of the benefits of salmon consumption.